It doesn't need a fancy nickname. It's an annual rivalry that's so entrenched in the college football lore all you have to do is say "The Game," and everybody in the Midwest knows which game you're talking about. It's two of the biggest rivals in college football. Two schools who represent a pair of states that share a border.
It's No. 1 Ohio State and No. 13 Michigan. It's the 115th time they'll line up across the line of scrimmage from one another. It's a game that both teams prepare for all season. The players on both sides are reminded every week that this game is coming, and for the most part, their lives will be defined by how they perform in it.
You won a Big Ten title? You won the Heisman Trophy? A national title? That's great, but what was your record against Michigan? What was it against Ohio State? It's not a coincidence that former Ohio State coach Urban Meyer, who won a national title with the Buckeyes, says his greatest accomplishment in Columbus was going 7-0 against Michigan. For many, that's worth more than a national title could ever be.
So how does The Game play out on Saturday afternoon in Ann Arbor, Michigan? Let's take a closer look at this matchup and make some picks both straight up and against the spread.
Storylines
Ohio State: OK, so while this game is important, Ohio State is still playing for a national title. The Buckeyes moved up to No. 1 this week after beating Penn State. It was the first time all season the Buckeyes found themselves playing in the fourth quarter of a game in which the outcome wasn't already decided. Of course, Ohio State did more to keep Penn State in the game than the Nittany Lions did thanks to turnovers.
It's possible that, while they weren't looking past Penn State, they might have been looking down at their phones while Penn State was talking to them. Checking their Instagram to see what Michigan was up to. The Buckeyes have already clinched the East Division, but a statement win against the Wolverines might cement their status as a College Football Playoff team no matter what happens in the Big Ten Championship.
Michigan: At halftime of their game against Penn State, the Wolverines found themselves trailing 21-7. They made a comeback effort in the second half, but fell a dropped pass in the end zone short. Still, since leaving the locker room at Beaver Stadium that night, Michigan has outscored its opponents 180-52. They enter this game against Ohio State on a four-game win streak and looking to end a seven-game losing streak to the hated Buckeyes.
A lot was made about Michigan's philosophical change on offense heading into the 2019 season, and it did not get off to a smooth start. Things have begun clicking in the last month, however, and the Michigan team that will face Ohio State on Saturday is a lot better than the team we saw struggle with Army and get pantsed by Wisconsin.
Viewing information
Date: Saturday, Nov. 30 | Time: Noon ET Location: Michigan Stadium -- Ann Arbor, Michigan TV: Fox | Live stream:fuboTV (Try for free)
Game prediction, picks
Listen, it's terrifying to take the Wolverines in this spot because of what Ohio State has done to them in recent years. Honestly, I'm not a huge fan of this pick. I prefer the over if I'm doing anything in this game because the decade has been filled with high-scoring affairs between these two. I expect another one to take place this Saturday, and unlike last season, I believe this Michigan team is better equipped to keep pace. Not enough to win the game, but enough to stay within the spread. I think. Maybe. Pick: Michigan (+8.5)
Missouri fired coach Barry Odom on Saturday, a day after the team completed its season at 6-6.
"As a program, we had tremendous momentum coming into the 2019 season with the opening of the new south end zone facility as well as other strategic investments in our football program," Missouri athletic director Jim Sterk said in a statement. "However, we lost a great deal of that energy during the last half of the season. This decision was difficult to make but was necessary."
Odom went 25-25 and 13-19 in SEC play during four seasons at his alma mater, where he served as defensive coordinator before being promoted to succeed Gary Pinkel after the 2015 season. Missouri started 5-1 this fall before dropping five consecutive games. The Tigers beat Arkansas on Friday.
The NCAA on Tuesday upheld a postseason ban and other sanctions against Missouri, where a former tutor for the football team and other teams at the school admitted to completing coursework for student-athletes. Athletic director Jim Sterk strongly criticized the NCAA for upholding the ban, which he called "a really hurtful decision that's a blow because it impacts so many student-athletes."
Odom, a former Tigers linebacker, began working for the football staff in 2003 and spent 10 of the next 13 seasons in various roles before being elevated to head coach. Former athletic director Mack Rhoades hired Odom, and Sterk was hired in August 2016. Odom went 4-8 in his first season before guiding Missouri to consecutive bowl appearances and 4-4 records in SEC play.
Sterk said a national search has begun to find the program's next head coach. He hired two head coaches, Bill Doba and Paul Wulff, during a decade as Washington State's athletic director. He also promoted Rocky Long to head coach at San Diego State while serving as AD there.
COLUMBUS, Ohio - Chris Olave went into last year’s installment of The Game as a promising piece of Ohio State football’s future.
By the end of that 62-39 Buckeyes victory — after the first two touchdown receptions of his career and a blocked punt — Olave commanded a piece of the present with a lasting place in the rivalry’s lore.
Could another young Ohio State player step up from relative anonymity with a starring role in Saturday’s continuation of the series?
Here are four prime candidates. For reference, players such as Zach Harrison, Garrett Wilson, Jeremy Ruckert and Sevyn Banks were not considered due to their extensive playing time already.
Jameson Williams, wide receiver: Who better to pick up where Olave left off than another speedy receiver? The trick for Williams will be rolling in enough to see significant snaps. However, he has clearly demonstrated what he can do in space if the ball finds his hands. He also serves as a gunner on kickoff returns.
Javontae Jean-Baptiste, defensive end: We don’t know yet if OSU will choose Saturday to burn the final game of Jonathon Cooper’s pending redshirt eligibility. Jean-Baptiste has been quietly productive as a reserve, totaling 14 tackles and 1.5 sacks in 11 games. With his length he can be a force without reaching the quarterback, by tipping passes or tripping up ballcarriers in the backfield.
Jaelen Gill, H-back: The redshirt freshman’s 32-yard touchdown catch against Rutgers accounts for nearly his entire season’s worth of production. He may be the future answer in the slot after K.J. Hill moves on. As we’ve seen before, those players sometimes declare their arrival in these spotlight moments.
Teradja Mitchell, linebacker: If cornerback Shaun Wade cannot play (or, perhaps even if he can, depending on his condition) someone will take his place on special teams. Mitchell has 12 tackles in seven games. If Michigan overcompensates to account for Olave or others coming off the edge in punt block scenarios, perhaps Mitchell can take advantage coming through the interior.
Get Buckeyes Insider texts in your phone from Doug Lesmerises: Cut through the clutter of social media and communicate directly with the award-winning OSU football reporter, just like you would with your friends. It’s just $3.99 a month, which works out to about 13 cents a day. Learn more and sign up here.
This is the Saturday Ohio State fans wait all year for. No. 1 Ohio State. No. 13 Michigan.
This year, “The Game” takes place in Ann Arbor, Michigan, which means you can expect good, old-fashioned late November weather for the greatest rivalry in sport.
The Buckeyes have won seven straight in the series, and 13 of 15*, thanks to the mastery of Jim Tressel and Urban Meyer, two Ohio men who knew just how much this rivalry means. (As an aside, a Michigan fan recently told us that we take this rivalry way more seriously than they do, to which we replied, “Good.”)
If you're heading to the game, you'll want to bundle up with a high of 35º at kickoff and a small breeze out of the southeast at 9 mph.
Look for the thermometer to climb as the game moves into the second half, with highs approaching 38º and the wind a constant. It will be overcast all afternoon, with a decent chance of precipitation: hovering around 30-40% for the game, but nothing etched into stone.
If you're heading to Ann Arbor and want to tailgate before the game, again, bundle up. You're looking at a high of 30º at 8 a.m. with the thermometer rising to just 34º an hour before kickoff.
Watching the game at home? Here's what you need to know:
KICKOFF: 12:08 p.m. CHANNEL: FOX STREAM:FOX Sports Go LINE: Ohio State -8
Khabib Nurmagomedov has lost just one round while racking up a 12-0 record in the UFC.
It's the second-best start in UFC history behind Anderson Silva, who won his first 16. Nurmagomedov's 28-0 overall record is the best in MMA. Among lightweights, he has the most takedowns landed and highest strike differential, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
Unbeatable, right?
Maybe not.
When Nurmagomedov faces Tony Ferguson on April 18 in Brooklyn, he'll be facing someone who is also on a 12-fight UFC win streak. Ferguson hasn't been stopped in 16 UFC fights -- fourth-best streak in history -- and has won 21 of his 26 overall by stoppage.
Many are already looking forward to a Khabib rematch with Conor McGregor -- who won the third round before being choked out in the fourth in their Oct. 6, 2018 bout. But Ferguson is not someone who should be overlooked.
ESPN's MMA panel of Ariel Helwani, Brett Okamoto, Marc Raimondi and Jeff Wagenheim break down the matchup.
What would a Ferguson win look like?
Helwani: Nurmagomedov is the most dominant fighter in UFC history, and I have a hard time believing Ferguson will stop Nurmagomedov. I think Ferguson will have to go the distance and out-tough him. Easier said than done, of course.
Okamoto: Ferguson is one of the most entertaining fighters in the world, because he's all action. Nurmagomedov is entertaining in his own right, but for a very different reason. It's entertaining to watch Nurmagomedov's dominance on the floor. "Action" is not one of the first words you'd use to describe a Nurmagomedov fight. He gets his prey to the ground and he doesn't let them back up. So, a Ferguson win would look like a Ferguson fight: He would defend Nurmagomedov's takedowns, and beat him standing. If he does get taken down, he'd pull out some kind of somersault, round off, triple axel reverse to get back up. And if he were held down for any real amount of time, he'd throw elbows from the bottom like they're going out of style. Action is Ferguson's friend. A grapple-fest is not.
Raimondi: Chaotic. Ferguson excels in a non-linear type of fight -- lots of scrambles, lots of unique positions. He'd likely use several aspects of MMA to get it done, not just striking or wrestling. There would almost certainly be some kind of combination of the two. Nurmagomedov is one of the best wrestlers in the world, but Ferguson is dangerous off his back. Ferguson is also a dynamic and fearless striker. He's unpredictable, which works to his advantage. Plus, Ferguson has cardio for days. There's a reason he hasn't lost since 2012.
Wagenheim: Ferguson's cornermen need to whisper in his ear that the UFC has electrified the Octagon fencing and, if he wants to avoid electrocution, he needs to stay away from the cage. By remaining in open space, Tony will be giving himself his best shot at keeping the fight standing. That way he can utilize his unpredictable attacks to try to put Nurmagomedov on the defensive. We haven't seen anyone succeed at doing this against Khabib, so maybe it's fantasy. But it's less outlandish fantasy than the notion that Ferguson can pull off a submission from underneath a Dagestani lead blanket.
How does Ferguson's grappling ability compare to Khabib's?
Helwani: Ferguson is very unorthodox in all facets of the game. He's as unconventional as it gets in training, striking and grappling. Nurmagomedov is more of a conventional Russian grappler/wrestler. He is tough, durable and relentless. The latter trait might be his most impressive one. I mean, did you see the way he was cupping Dustin Poirier's mouth during their fight in September? You don't see that kind of technique often.
Okamoto: Ferguson has a strong wrestling background that includes success at the high school and collegiate levels. Ferguson has never really fought like a traditional, American collegiate wrestler in MMA, though. He has a style that is uniquely his own, which he has crafted mostly on his own. He's also a black belt in Eddie Bravo's 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu system. Now, that said, there's not a lightweight on the planet who owns an advantage over Nurmagomedov's grappling. Nurmagomedov is the best in the world at taking an opponent down and keeping him there. What makes this matchup interesting is Ferguson's gas tank and his unorthodox style. The cardio can't be overstated. Nurmagomedov prides himself in making opponents tired. Ferguson doesn't get tired.
Raimondi: Nurmagomedov is an oppressive wrestler with several ways to put opponents on their backs. Once there, Nurmagomedov has options. He can ground and pound from the top or he can get foes into a leg-ride type of position against the fence, which is where he cinched that jaw crank on McGregor at UFC 229. Nurmagomedov is hard to shake off once he has that kind of position. While Nurmagomedov is suffocating, Ferguson is dynamic. He's rolling for legs, being aggressive, going for submissions. Both men are excellent grapplers, but they couldn't be any more different in their approach.
Wagenheim: Khabib is going to maneuver you against the cage, trap you there, lock up your body and take you down, then wrap his legs around yours to immobilize you while he works his body into top position, from where he beats you up. He is as methodical as he is unstoppable. Ferguson, on the other hand, is all about the scramble and the scrap, his martial arts expressed in the chaotic abstract. He is Jackson Pollock impetuousness, while Khabib is as coldly resolute as, say, Edward Hopper. Sorry, champ, but I don't know enough art history to cite a Russian master of harsh realism.
Is Ferguson a more dangerous opponent for Khabib than Conor?
Helwani: Right now, yes. Because Nurmagomedov has never fought Ferguson. So, off the bat, Ferguson presents questions Nurmagomedov has never answered. Ferguson is also a tad craftier on the ground, so that will be interesting, but lest we forget McGregor was the first and only person to win a round against Nurmagomedov.
Okamoto: Yes, I believe he is, for reasons we've already highlighted. Ferguson has more grappling experience than McGregor and better endurance. Ferguson probably doesn't have the one-punch knockout power of McGregor, but let's not pretend he doesn't hit hard. He has sneaky power and more ways to finish a fight than McGregor. And again, the cardio is huge. Cardio is mandatory against Nurmagomedov.
Raimondi: People repeat the phrase "styles make fights" so many times that it has almost lost its meaning. But that truly is the case here. McGregor is a striker who is unproven against great wrestlers and grapplers, especially those at the level of Nurmagomedov. Ferguson, meanwhile, seems to have the tools to deal with Nurmagomedov's wrestling, because the skills and offense off his back he honed under Eddie Bravo. And Ferguson is an effective, versatile, free-flowing striker on top of that. There are ways he can beat Nurmagomedov that McGregor could not.
Wagenheim: In theory, an opponent with one-punch KO power should pose the greatest peril, because Khabib is not a guy you're going to systematically break down. McGregor has that kind of thwack, and Ferguson does not. But "El Cucuy" has a more well-rounded game, and if his wrestling ability enables him to keep the fight standing for longer than Conor could, that would afford Ferguson more opportunity to take Nurmagomedov out of his comfort zone. Tony needs to drag the fight away from methodical demolition and into hurly-burly improvisation, and he is a threat to do so.
Ferguson called Khabib's performance against Poirier 'lazy.' What was your take on his win?
Helwani: I respectfully disagree with that assessment. I thought Nurmagomedov looked as dominant as ever. He was aggressive, relentless and smart. At no point did he seem in danger of losing that fight. After 11 months off, he did exactly what he had to do to win that fight, and he looked great in doing so. He even got a finish.
Okamoto: Not lazy. Convincing. Pretty dominant. I'm not entirely sure what Ferguson meant by "lazy." Did he feel Nurmagomedov should have found a more challenging way to win, over taking Poirier down and owning him on the ground as he does everyone else? Poirier is a talented boxer with an underrated submission game, and Nurmagomedov overwhelmed him on the floor. Even though we've seen it many times before, it was impressive. According to UFC Stats data, he absorbed only 30 total strikes in that fight and went 7-of-8 on takedowns.
Raimondi: Not sure I buy that one. Nurmagomedov was pretty dominant against Poirier and finished the fight in the third round with a rear-naked choke. Nurmagomedov isn't lazy, he's methodical. That's what got him to this 28-0 undefeated record, and that's the game plan he executed perfectly against Poirier. Ferguson does a lot more in his victories. He's rolling for submissions, jumping for knees. Nurmagomedov and Ferguson couldn't be more different. But Nurmagomedov is extremely proficient in what he does. And let's not forget how darn good Poirier is. It's best to stick to an efficient strategy against someone as dangerous as Poirier.
Wagenheim: So we're dissecting "El Cucuy"-speak now? Yikes, my head is spinning. Maybe what he meant was Nurmagomedov looked so comfortable in controlling Poirier from top position that it was as though Khabib were relaxing in a recliner. Or perhaps it was Ferguson's homage to the bombast of Pyotr Ilyich Tchaikovsky, who once said, "Inspiration is a guest that does not willingly visit the lazy." Or maybe ... nah, I have no idea what Tony was talking about, and I seldom do. I thought Khabib came through that fight smelling like a daisy. Which rhymes with lazy.
How do you expect the fight to play out?
Helwani: I think it will be a very fun fight. I do think their grappling will neutralize each other and a good early portion of the fight will be contested on the feet. That should be fun. Ultimately, I see it going the distance.
Okamoto: There's a reason the fight world has been looking forward to this matchup so much. Of course, the long history of cancellations has a lot to do with it, but it's also because this matchup, stylistically, is arguably the most intriguing fight Nurmagomedov can book. Ferguson is so unorthodox. He surprises his opponents with shots they don't see coming, he has (maybe) the absolute best gas tank in the sport, and he's hard to pin down for an extended amount of time. He's big for the division. This fight is necessary to determine, beyond all shred of doubt, the best lightweight in the world. I think the fight will be competitive, and Ferguson will take Nurmagomedov closer to defeat than he's ever been. But my early lean has to be on the champion pulling it out.
Raimondi: That's so hard to call. Nurmagomedov's best bet is still to take Ferguson down. Ferguson might be dangerous off his back, but Nurmagomedov is one of the best pure wrestlers in the history of MMA. You can't get to this point and not stick with your bread and butter. I expect Nurmagomedov to take Ferguson down and for Ferguson to attempt to allow that on his own terms -- into a position where he can land elbows from the bottom and attempt submissions. What happens when it hits the mat is anyone's guess. I expect Nurmagomedov to fend off Ferguson's attacks and grind him out. But if you tell me Ferguson might do something wild and land or get a close submission attempt, I wouldn't be shocked, either. No matter the result, I can't wait to see two masters of very different styles go to battle.
Wagenheim: Back in 2013, I remember looking at the skill set of unbeaten Chris Weidman, noting he seemed like a bad matchup for Anderson Silva, yet being unable to envision a result other than another victory for "The Spider," who had won 17 in a row while casting a spell of inferiority upon the rest of the fight world. I cite that to acknowledge that my predictable forecasting of another Nurmagomedov victory here is based on my own chronic lack of vision, not on some deficiency in Ferguson's game. Ferguson has built a six-year winning streak upon an idiosyncratic tenacity that makes him Khabib's biggest threat yet. Still, I just can't see the night ending with anything but the invulnerable champion squashing another declawed antagonist.
On Friday, Tony Ferguson inked his bout agreement to face Khabib Nurmagomedov in a lightweight title fight scheduled for a UFC pay-per-view event on April 18 from the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y. Nurmagomedov had already signed his contract earlier this week.
Multiple sources confirmed the fight as signed, sealed and delivered when speaking to MMA Fighting on Friday following an initial report from ESPN. Terms of the deal were not disclosed but Ferguson and his management team from Ballengee Group flew to Las Vegas to meet with the UFC to hammer out the details before put was put to paper.
The title fight was already targeted for that date but Ferguson’s side hadn’t been completed just yet. Now that he’s signed, the title fight can move forward as scheduled as Ferguson looks to hand Nurmagomedov the first defeat of his professional career.
The two top-ranked lightweights have been scheduled to meet four times previously dating all the way back to 2015.
The first fight was scrapped after Nurmagomedov suffered an injury in training. The matchup was then rescheduled four months later but this time it was Ferguson who was forced to withdraw due to a lung issue.
Nurmagomedov and Ferguson were paired up yet again at UFC 209 in 2017, but the undefeated Russian suffered through a brutal weight cut, which forced him to go to the hospital and that once again kept the fight from happening. Finally in 2018, the fight was scheduled for the fourth time only to see Ferguson suffer a bizarre knee injury after he tripped over a television cable while promoting the UFC 223 event where he was supposed to face Nurmagomedov to crown a new lightweight champion.
Now more than four years after they were initially expected to meet, Nurmagomedov will face Ferguson with the lightweight title on the line in the main event on April 18. While the event hasn’t been named yet, it’s currently expected that the card will be UFC 249, although the promotion has not finalized that yet.
A chance to fall into a tie with the Eagles atop the ugly NFC East. A possibility of missing the playoffs entirely. And yet another loss to a team above .500.
What wasn't reality Thursday night into Friday morning was a coaching change. Jason Garrett remains as the Cowboys head coach, despite the team's lifeless appearance in the second half of its annual Thanksgiving contest. Owner Jerry Jones explained his reasoning to reporters, with tears welling up in his eyes as he leaned on a faint hope of an unexpected turnaround and storybook run to the Super Bowl.
That's probably the only way Garrett could save his job. But a new arrival, veteran defensive lineman Michael Bennett, doesn't have much time to dream. The recent addition via trade wants -- needs -- results now. That's what spurred his high-volume tirade in the Cowboys' locker room after the loss, a rant loud enough to be heard by media members through the closed locker room doors.
"The champions are the people that get remembered," Bennett said when asked about his message to his teammates, via the Dallas Morning News. "They don't remember who got the biggest contract. A whole bunch of great players got great contracts, but they don't get remembered as champions. Champions are the ones who get the gold plates and the jackets and they understand what it takes to win. That's just a certain mindset. That's just a certain ability to play tough in adverse moments."
The Cowboys undoubtedly did not play tough Thursday. Buffalo came into Dallas and won the physical battle on every level of the field, asserting its will while securing its ninth win of the season.
The Bills have clinched a winning season and are likely to be headed to the postseason. The Cowboys cannot say as much. They're running out of time to change that, though they can benefit from a weak division.
"We're pissed off," running back Ezekiel Elliott said. "We know what type of team we have, and we haven't put that on the field at all this year. We're pissed off. ... We're a better team than we've been putting on film every Sunday."
Jason Garrett's job is safe, but only for the moment. In the aftermath of Dallas' 26-15 loss to the Buffalo Bills on Thanksgiving to move them to 6-6 on the season, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones confirmed to reporters that this latest stumble by Garrett won't cost him his job.
"I'm just not going to make a coaching change," Jones said, via NFL.com. "This is not the time."
This latest loss not only brings Dallas to a .500 record, but it also moves them to an 0-5 record against teams with a winning record in 2019. Despite that, Jones noted that if he were to move on from Garrett in-season, that would drastically hurt Dallas' chances of getting to and winning Super Bowl LIV.
"I wouldn't make a change and give us a chance to do what I want to dream about doing. I wouldn't do that for love nor money," Jones said, via Pro Football Talk. "It would give us zero chance if we didn't have [Garrett]."
While it feels like the Cowboys are on the ropes after losing two straight, Jones' club still has the inside track at making the playoffs. No matter if the Philadelphia Eagles win or lose on Sunday, Dallas would still have ahold of the NFC East lead coming out of Week 13 as they currently own the tiebreaker over Philly. If the Eagles do beat the Miami Dolphins, however, that would draw them even record-wise and potentially set up a massive Week 16 showdown between the two at Lincoln Financial Field.
The Cowboys got embarrassed on Thanksgiving there's a lot to go over. Fortunately Will Brinson, John Breech, Ryan Wilson and Sean Wagner-McGough are here to break everything down from all three games on the Pick Six Podcast. Listen to the full show below and be sure to subscribe here for daily NFL goodness fired into your eardrums.
Before we get too ahead of ourselves with that potential division determining contest, Jones reiterated that he's focusing on the here-and-now. That immediate future for Dallas doesn't include a change at the top.
"I'm going to do the same thing I've always done when I get a setback or get my butt kicked," Jones said. "I'm going to get up in the morning, and I'm going to look for ways [to help], and I'm not going to panic. I'm going to look for ways to improve the situation. I'm still glad that when I get up in the morning, I can look for ways to help our team. One of them is not a coaching change. One of them is not reworking the offense or the defense. Those aren't alternatives for us to be ready to play over the next month and give us a chance to be what we want to be. But if we stay healthy and other contenders might not, and all of a sudden we start jelling, and we start getting some turnovers, then those games will turn out differently. I like our bet there. I do, even though we haven't played well the last three games. I like our bet.
"As I said, nobody is satisfied with how we played even when we played Detroit. That's not taking away from anything, but we can play better, and if we can play better, we've still got the base health of this team and we've got the personnel that we can put out there and we've got some coaches, generally coaches here, that I believe in. It's not working the way they'd thought it'd work, or I'd thought it'd work, but I believe in these coaches to be here to begin with."
Dallas has the Bears, Rams, Eagles and Redskins remaining on the schedule and, for Garrett to keep his job heading into 2020, he'll likely need to lead them to a near-perfect record in those games, while also stamping the Cowboys ticket to the postseason.
If he fails in that endeavor, Jerry Jones likely won't be as merciful as he was Thursday night.
Dallas Cowboys fans are in a panic. Losing a close game to the Patriots in Foxborough, Massachusetts, was one thing, but a 26-15 loss to the Bills at home on Thanksgiving ruined dinners across America. It's beginning to feel like a lost season for a Cowboys team that before the season expected to contend for a Super Bowl. You can tell things aren't going well when the in-game news is about how coach Jason Garrett won't be fired in-season.
There are reasons to be skeptical of this team and its ceiling. Garrett might not get fired during the season, but his long-term future with the organization looks increasingly cloudy. Key contributors such as Leighton Vander Esch and Amari Cooper are either banged up or outright injured. The Cowboys unquestionably have problems.
Is it time to write off Dallas and its chances of making the playoffs? No. As ugly as Thursday's loss was, there are reasons to think the Cowboys are still a viable playoff contender. By ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), in fact, the 6-6 Cowboys are still favorites to win the NFC East at 62%. I'm not quite as confident in the Cowboys as FPI, but those projections are a reminder that Dallas is still very much in the race.
Here's why the Cowboys aren't doomed (yet):
Their competition isn't doing well, either
As messy as the Cowboys look now, have you seen the Eagles? Philadelphia's offense has scored only 19 points over the past two games in losses to the Patriots and Seahawks, and one of those scores came with 23 seconds left down 17-3 last weekend. The Eagles have been ravaged by injuries on offense and were down to third-stringers along the offensive line during the loss to the Seahawks. And while the Giants and Washington are still somehow mathematically in the playoff race at 2-9, both teams should be eliminated as early as this weekend.
The Eagles are comfortable favorites at Miami on Sunday, which would take them to 6-6 and tied for first place with the Cowboys. Dallas has the tiebreaker after stomping the Eagles 37-10 in October, but the rematch between these two teams in Week 16 will take place in Philadelphia. Then again, home field hasn't meant much to the Eagles this season, given that Carson Wentz & Co. are 3-3 at the Linc in 2019.
Philadelphia's remaining schedule isn't scary, either. Even after the Dolphins game this weekend, the non-Cowboys schedule on tap for Doug Pederson's team includes a home-and-home with the Giants and a road trip to play a Washington team that routinely plays in front of a half-empty stadium. It's worth pointing out that the Eagles have lost to the 3-9 Falcons and 3-8-1 Lions this season, but outside of the Cowboys game, that's four matchups against some of the league's worst teams.
If there's good news for the Cowboys here, it's that ...
Dallas' remaining schedule isn't tough, either
Much has been made of the fact that the Cowboys haven't won a single game against a team with a winning record. Outside of their victory against the Eagles, who probably will be at or above .500 by the end of the season, Dallas' five wins have come over the Dolphins, Giants, Lions and Washington, who are a combined 9-35-1. The Jets would be in this group, but the Cowboys lost to Sam Darnold & Co. in Week 6.
The Cowboys might not actually need to win a single game against a team with a winning record to win the NFC East, because their schedule isn't tough. I would argue that it's harder than that of the Eagles, as FPI gives Philadelphia the league's easiest remaining schedule. Over the next two weeks, Dallas travels to face a 6-6 Bears team that nearly lost to the David Blough-led Lions on Thanksgiving, then hosts a 6-5 Rams team that is seemingly in free fall. There's no guarantee the Rams or Eagles are above .500 when they face the Cowboys in December, and then Dallas finishes up with a home game against Washington.
Dallas probably will be favored in three of those four games and slight underdogs at Philadelphia. That game in Week 16 will obviously have a huge impact on the division title, and while past performance isn't always indicative of what will happen in a rematch, the Cowboys blew out the Eagles the most recent time these two teams played. It's one of the reasons why ...
Advanced metrics think the Cowboys are better than public perception
Even after you account for the relatively easy opposition in those Cowboys victories, advanced metrics think the Cowboys are a very good team. Dallas ranked fifth in DVOA heading into Thanksgiving, and while it will drop after losing to the 14th-ranked Bills, the Cowboys probably will still sit in the top quarter of NFL teams heading into the final month of the season. FPI has them seventh.
The Cowboys have outscored their opponents by 74 points this season, and their Pythagorean expectation through 12 games is for 7.8 wins as opposed to their 6-6 mark. The gap between those two figures shouldn't be a surprise if you read my column on the teams most likely to decline in 2019, a list that included the Cowboys. Their 10-6 record last season was driven by an unsustainable 8-2 record in games decided by seven points or fewer.
We would typically expect the Cowboys to regress toward the mean and win about half of their close games. Instead, this season, the Cowboys are 0-4 in seven-point contests. While the Jets game was against inferior opposition, the other three losses came against some of the league's best. And in each of the contests, the Cowboys were in it until the final whistle:
In Week 4, the Cowboys led 10-9 over the Saints briefly at the start of the fourth quarter, but after a Wil Lutz field goal, three second-half Cowboys drives stalled without getting into field goal range.
In Week 6, the Cowboys launched a comeback against the Jets and scored on each of their final two drives, only to fail on the 2-point try and lose 24-22.
In Week 10, Dallas marched downfield at 28-24 and had a second-and-2 from the Vikings' 11-yard line with 1 minute, 33 seconds to go, only for two Ezekiel Elliott runs to lose three yards before an incomplete pass on fourth down.
Against the Patriots last Sunday, a Cowboys team trailing 14-9 was whistled for a phantom tripping call, turning a first down into a third-and-11. After Cooper narrowly couldn't bring in a pass on fourth down, Dallas lost.
This is virtually the same core of talent that won 80% of its close games last season. Going 0-4 in close games is more randomness than anything else.
Their special teams should get better
The Cowboys realistically lost the game against the Patriots because of their special-teams play. Brett Maher missed an early field goal attempt amid dismal weather conditions, and after one of the incorrect tripping calls was levied against Dallas, the Patriots blocked the ensuing punt by Chris Jones and gave their offense a short field. Tom Brady & Co. responded with their only touchdown of the day in a 13-9 win.
Against the Bills, too, the game might have gone differently if the Cowboys' specialists had done better. Maher saw a 35-yard field goal attempt blocked just before halftime and later missed a 47-yarder. The Bills weren't much better -- Stephen Hauschka missed a field goal attempt, an extra point attempt and saw another field goal bounce in off an upright -- but if Maher makes those two early field goals attempts, the Cowboys aren't in desperation mode and don't (necessarily) have to go for it on each of their two failed fourth-down tries in the fourth quarter.
Special teams have weighed down the Cowboys throughout the season. Dallas ranked last in special-teams DVOA heading into the Bills game, and its performance Thursday isn't going to get Keith O'Quinn's unit out of the basement. Ironically, Maher had been the most effective member of those special teams, given that the 30-year-old had been slightly above average on scoring plays before Thursday afternoon.
The relatively good news is that special teams is the most inconsistent element of football from week to week and season to season. The Cowboys ranked seventh in special-teams DVOA in 2017 and 23rd last season; they're not going to suddenly turn into a good special-teams unit, but they're probably not going to hit just 50% of their field goals attempts over the rest of the season, either.
The offense probably will play better
The past two games haven't looked good for coordinator Kellen Moore's offense. After posting a QBR of 78.1 and playing like an MVP candidate through the first 11 weeks of the season, Dak Prescott has been able to muster only a middling QBR of 46.0 over the past two. Elliott has 33 carries for 157 yards, but those runs have yielded only eight first downs. A hobbled Cooper was shut down altogether by Stephon Gilmore and had to be hidden in the slot away from Tre'Davious White on Thursday. The Cowboys have scored 24 points on 21 meaningful possessions over the past two games.
I can give you an easy reason why the offense struggled over the past two games: The guys on the other side of the ball were pretty good, too. Even given the gibes about their quality of competition, the Patriots lead the league in defensive DVOA, which is adjusted for schedule. The Bills rank ninth in overall defensive DVOA and were fifth against the pass, marks that will both rise after Thursday's victory. The Pats and Bills rank first and third, respectively, in scoring defense. Everyone's going to look worse against defenses this good.
The Cowboys have done an incredible job of staying on the field on offense. Through Week 11, they had converted just over 50% of their third- and fourth-down tries this season, which was the second-best rate in the league behind Baltimore. Against the Patriots in Week 12, the combination of terrible weather and a dominant defense led the Cowboys to go just 2-of-14 on third and fourth downs.
Dallas was back to form in converting on eight of its 16 tries against the Bills, but its offense petered out at the wrong times. As Warren Sharp mentioned, the Cowboys went scoreless on their next eight drives despite getting into field positions where teams generally come away with points. They made it into Buffalo territory on six of those drives, but they yielded a punt, a Prescott strip sack, two missed field goal attempts and two turnovers on downs.
It's uncommon for a team to make as many scoreless trips into the opposing team's territory in one game as the Cowboys did Thursday. Before Thanksgiving, there were only six instances in 2019 of a team ending six or more scoreless possessions on the opposition's side of the field. One of those examples was the Cowboys, who racked up six such drives against the Packers in Week 5, but they otherwise totaled 19 similar drives over their 10 other games. Thursday was a combination of bad kicking and great defense.
The Cowboys face only one pushover defense over the rest of the season, which is Washington in Week 17. No team is as good as the Patriots, but the Rams (sixth in DVOA), Eagles (seventh), and Bears (11th, excluding the Lions game) are all defenses that should show up and compete against Dallas.
At the same time, though, the Cowboys are among the league's best offenses. They were No. 1 in DVOA before the Patriots game, and even after two subpar outings, they're likely to sit either third or fourth when the new rankings come out, depending on how the Chiefs perform against the Raiders this weekend. Neither of the outliers that stalled them against the Patriots and Bills is likely to keep popping up over the rest of their schedule.
The team hasn't quit on Garrett
Although I'm sure you'll see some commenters float the idea over the next few days that the Cowboys have quit on Garrett, that storyline has always been difficult to swallow. Watch the fourth quarter of Sunday's game and you'll see Prescott attempting to run through tackles while scrambling and Cooper going over the middle of the field with most of his lower body injured. You might argue that Garrett should have kept Cooper out of the game, but those don't seem like the actions of players who have given up on the team.
It also would have been easy to make that same claim when the Cowboys lost by two touchdowns to the Titans on Monday Night Football last October and fell to 3-5. Much as he did after Thursday's loss, owner Jerry Jones insisted after the game that he had no intention of making an in-season coaching move. Dallas promptly got hot and went 7-1 the rest of the way.
I once tracked this same narrative with Tom Coughlin and the Giants. During Coughlin's first seven years as Giants coach, reporters suggested that the Giants had quit on their leader in no fewer than five different campaigns. In the eighth season, Coughlin had to deny that his team had quit on him after a 49-24 loss to the Saints in Week 12 dropped the Giants to 6-5.
Of course, the Giants ended up winning the Super Bowl that season. I don't think the same sort of run is in the cards for the Cowboys, but two frustrating games against good-to-great opposition aren't typically enough to derail an entire season. I'm not predicting that the Cowboys will win the East and make it to the playoffs, but they have a much better shot of doing so than the grumbles suggest.
Thanksgiving is over and December is almost here — which means undue pressure ahead for several notable names throughout the NFL.
For coaches, players and owners, the final month of the season can be a time of reckoning. Entering Week 13, only one team — the Cincinnati Bengals — had been eliminated from playoff contention, though the Detroit Lions joined them with a loss on Thanksgiving. But several more are sure to follow, and such disappointments could force a change of scenery in 2020.
With that in mind, we asked NFL reporters and writers for USA TODAY Sports: Which NFL figure is under the most pressure in the final month of the season?
Their answers:
Nancy Armour
Oh, there are so many choices. Some of the more obvious candidates are Detroit Lions general manager Bob Quinn and head coach Matt Patricia, but I think their fates are already sealed. Or, if they haven’t been, they should be. Same goes for Pat Shurmur, though it’s hard to win games when your best player was traded away and the defense is wholly ineffective.
But nowhere is the situation more dire than in Washington for general manager Bruce Allen and his boss, owner Dan Snyder.
Allen created this raging dumpster fire that is masquerading as an NFL team, and he will have to somehow convince Snyder that he deserves yet another chance to fix it. Why? Because of his track record in hiring winning head coaches? His close, personal relationships with players? His history of attracting marquee free agents? His ability to build a championship culture? Oh, right. The culture is “actually damn good,” according to Allen. So never mind there.
As for Snyder, this once beloved, once proud franchise is quickly becoming irrelevant in Washington. Fans are fed up with Snyder’s arrogance and his staff’s ineptitude, and the success of the Nationals (reigning World Series champions), Mystics (current WNBA champions) and Capitals (2018 Stanley Cup winners) only make Washington’s failures more glaring. Fans are already turning off; tickets for last weekend’s game were going for as little as $4 at one point, and seats for the final home game, Dec. 22 against the equally woeful Giants, could be had for $16 on Wednesday.
This season is already a wash. But if Allen and Snyder don’t do something over the next month to assure fans that next year won’t be more of the same, they risk turning Washington into the NFL equivalent of the Miami Marlins, a team that is both awful and invisible.
Jarrett Bell
Jason Garrett … and Jerry Jones. I know, I know. The Cowboys coach should be used to immense pressure, operating for so long under the watchful eye and supportive wisdom of Jerry Jones. So the fact that Jerry has thickened the plot in recent weeks with some of his public comments isn’t exactly new territory for Garrett. Besides, I believe that part of the Jerry package is to use certain messages in the public arena to tighten the screws and increase the pressure. So, there’s that. To Garrett’s credit, his teams always seem to play hard for him. And I fully expect they will continue to go down swinging for him … although that might not be enough to save his job if they don’t turn it into a deep playoff run.
One reason Garrett has remained so poised (at least from what he displays for the world) is that he was groomed for his role while coming up in the Cowboys culture. He’s learned to roll with the circus-in-a-fishbowl environment. And fair or not, he knows who he’s working for. Yet for all the years that Jones has had Garrett’s back, his patience can’t last forever. Add Garrett’s lame-duck contract status to the mix, and this is certainly a different type of make-or-break pressure.
But for all of that, let’s not overlook the significant external pressure swirling about Garrett. Some diehard Cowboys fans have been calling for his head for years. Ask Tony Romo what that is like. And now, the Garrett detractors inside the Cowboys Nation fan base may be on the verge of growing in size and volume. Of course, the decision on Garrett ultimately comes down to Jerry – who harbors some pressure of his own as he’s been unable to duplicate the championship teams that Jimmy Johnson built. It has been 23 years, going on 24, since the NFL’s most popular, most valuable, most glamorous and most telegenic franchise – 23 years! – has played in a Super Bowl. That’s the longest championship dry spell in Cowboys history – and it’s under Jerry’s watch. But Jerry can’t fire himself. No wonder the pressure he must feel to win big without Jimmy extends to Garrett, just as it would for any coach envisioned to produce a champion.
Nate Davis
I’m going with the NFL’s senior VP of officiating, Al Riveron. If you don’t appreciate how embattled he could be, read some of the reporting from our esteemed Jarrett Bell. Saints coach Sean Payton held little back, and one head coach told Jarrett that the state of officiating is “awful” … which most league observers recognized long ago. Now, with the playoffs and Super Bowl approaching, the problems are only going to become magnified for Riveron and his crews. It sure seems like the officiating corps got too inexperienced way too quickly as established refs retired or took high-profile TV jobs. And then there’s the replay system, which doesn’t seem to be working as designed this season with pass interference now subject to review, and those issues boomerang to Riveron. And once a bad call (or calls) costs a team a playoff spot or game or, football gods forbid, a Super Bowl berth as happened in New Orleans last year – with the expectation that such injustices can be rectified? I shudder to think what could happen next offseason. But it sure feels like there could soon be demand for a sacrificial zebra.
Jori Epstein
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has made his expectation for Jason Garrett clear.
“I don’t have to win the Super Bowl in business every year,” Jones told NFL Network on Wednesday. “I can come in sixth and have a hell of a year. But in this business, you’ve got to come in first. ... I want Jason to get it done.”
Garrett hasn’t been able to get it—a Super Bowl run—done in a decade as Dallas’ head coach. He has not even competed in a conference championship game, and his bosses want to see that progress for him to remain Cowboys coach. Technically, Jones need not even fire Garrett. Garrett already is coaching on the final year of his contract. Jones, as owner and general manager, believes he’s assembled a roster far more talented than its 6-6 record indicates. Though Jones said he had no plans to fire his coach during the season, he shows no desire to soften his tone with Garrett until results reflect that. Even as the Cowboys sit atop the NFC East, Garrett knows: He has been placed on notice.
Mike Jones
A lot of guys are feeling the heat as the league enters the homestretch of the season, but I’m going to go with Mitchell Trubisky. This season hasn’t at all gone the way he and the Bears wanted, and now, he’s seemingly in danger of losing his job this offseason. He has to find a way to quickly get to a better place mentally so he can perform at a high level and signal to the Bears that he’s worth sticking with next season and beyond. Otherwise, Chicago probably has to go in a different direction next season so they can capitalize on this win-now roster.
Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz
A three-game win streak has helped ease some of the concerns in Cleveland, but Freddie Kitchens might not have quieted all of the grumblings just yet. At 5-6, the Browns now have playoff aspirations again thanks in part to a watered-down AFC. With two games against the Bengals remaining, the schedule is quite conducive to a late-season run. But if the Browns take another misstep or two and miss out on their first winning season since 2007, the question will resurface: Is Kitchens the right person to lead all this young talent?
Tom Schad
It would be a bit surprising for the Bengals to punt on Zac Taylor after just one season, but we've reached the point now where he's got to show something. Anything. Any sign of growth or hope that Bengals ownership can point to as a reason to keep him. Because the early returns have been, well, awful.
Ballyhooed as a Sean McVay protege and offensive innovator, Taylor has instead led the NFL's second-worst scoring offense, a unit that has scored more than 20 points exactly once in 11 games. The quarterback position is a mess, with Taylor switching back to Andy Dalton this week in a move that reeks of desperation, and attendance is bottoming out. The notion of tanking and rebuilding through the draft is all well and good, but if Taylor's team doesn't show signs of life in the final month, ownership might decide to let someone else lead the franchise through such a rebuild.
Hill blocked a punt to set up his 3-yard touchdown catch before scoring again on a 30-yard run, and the New Orleans Saints clinched their third straight NFC South title by beating the Atlanta Falcons 26-18 on Thursday night.
Hill stole the show on a roster filled with more established stars.
New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees eats a drumstick after defeating the Atlanta Falcons 26-18. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
“When you have guys like Mike Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Jared Cook, the list goes on, it kind of creates opportunities for little old me because it creates so much attention that's put on those guys,” Hill said.
“Coach (Sean Payton) is one of the best at being creative and putting guys in positions to be successful. I got lucky because I was that guy tonight.”
The Saints (10-2) atoned for their 26-9 home loss to the Falcons on Nov. 10, their only defeat in the last 10 games.
With Julio Jones inactive due to a shoulder injury, the Falcons had too little offense to keep pace with Drew Brees and the Saints. Atlanta recovered two onside kicks in the closing minutes, including one with 1:54 remaining, to make things interesting.
Matt Ryan was sacked by Cameron Jordan on a fourth-down play from the New Orleans 44 with 38 seconds remaining. Ryan was sacked nine times, including four by Jordan.
“We had to drop back and pass at the end of the game,” Ryan said. “When you do that and there’s really no threat of run, it’s tough sledding, particularly when you’re going against a good defense, a very good defensive line and one of the better pass rushers in the game in Cam Jordan.”
The versatile Hill blocked Ryan Allen’s punt to end Atlanta’s first possession. The Saints took over at the Falcons 30, and four plays later Hill scored his first touchdown on a short pass from Brees.
Hill took a direct snap and ran 30 yards for his first rushing touchdown of the season to give New Orleans a 17-6 lead late in the first half.
“If I can step on the field eight to 10 to 15 times, whatever that number is, my goal is to add a spark whenever I can,” Hill said. “I love to be able to go in and add some energy.”
The disappointing Falcons (3-9) solidified their hold on last place in the division with their second straight home loss.
Atlanta running back Devonta Freeman returned after missing two games with a foot sprain. Freeman ran for 51 yards on 17 carries.
Ryan committed three second-half turnovers — two interceptions and a lost fumble. Saints nose tackle Shy Tuttle and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson had interceptions.
Ryan fumbled in the fourth quarter when hit by Marcus Davenport. Vonn Bell’s recovery set up Will Lutz’s fourth field goal, from 45 yards.
Eli Apple’s 22-yard pass-interference penalty helped extend an Atlanta drive that ended with a fourth-down incompletion from the Saints 2.
Apple drew another pass interference call, this one a 35-yarder, and on the next play Ryan found tight end Jaeden Graham for an 18-yard touchdown pass that cut the Saints’ lead to 7-6, following Younghoe Koo’s missed extra point.
Koo also missed a 42-yard field goal before making a 45-yarder with 3 seconds remaining in the first half. Koo was good from 43 yards late in the game.
