The Giants closed the book on Eli Manning’s days as a starting quarterback and opened the great debate on his career: Has he done enough to get into the Pro Football Hall of Fame?
Fans with a No. 10 jersey in their closet and fond memories of his two Super Bowl victories might be surprised by the answer.
Seven — quickly going on eight — years of mostly bad football by the Giants did irreparable damage to Manning’s resume, and his once-reserved spot in the Hall of Fame is far from guaranteed now that he is on the bench behind rookie teammate Daniel Jones.
NJ Advance Media spoke to 39 of 48 members on the Hall of Fame’s selection committee (comprised of NFL media, including two inductees) and 30 agreed to participate in a two-question survey, while others spoke in general terms:
- Does Manning have your vote right now?
- If he finishes with a career losing record, would it affect your vote?
*(results published below)
“I think he has hurt his Hall of Fame resume by staying around as long as he has,” one voter replied. “Not many players have done that. But he is leaving a subpar lasting impression.”
Perhaps it is a coincidence Giants coach Pat Shurmur benched Manning just as his career record dipped to .500, only two games into the season. Or are the Giants trying to save a 38-year-old fierce competitor — who has given no indication he wants to retire soon — from himself?
Manning’s career regular-season record of 116-116 is sunk by 47-66 since winning Super Bowl XLVI in February 2012. The last time Manning started a game with a .500 career record was Sept. 30, 2007, when he was 21-21.
Either way, Manning is a Hall of Fame outlier.
The two-time Super Bowl MVP will join Joe Namath (62-63-4) and Sonny Jurgensen (69-71-7) as the only modern quarterbacks inducted without a winning record. Or he will join Jim Plunkett as the only omitted quarterbacks with multiple Super Bowl wins.
Manning is a New England Patriots dynasty-killer, but he only went to the playoffs six times in 16 seasons. He reeled off eight straight non-losing seasons, followed by six losing seasons in a seven-year span, including 2019.
Does it equate out to a bust in the Hall of Fame?
Survey results
It sounds like Manning will spark one of the great debates ever to rage in the sealed room.
The annual list of about 100 nominees is narrowed to 15 finalists by the 48 voters. A Hall of Fame class cannot include more than five modern-era inductees.
An 80 percent "yes” vote is needed for induction — and that might be difficult to get unless the five-year waiting period from retirement until eligibility is kind to Manning. A finalist cannot afford more than nine “no” votes and Manning has at least 10 from the current committee members barring a change.
Because the Pro Football Hall of Fame allows voters to keep individual votes private, NJ Advance Media offered the same anonymity in its survey. Here is the full breakdown of results:
Yes, Manning has my vote: 11
No, Manning does not: 10
Undecided right now: 9
Declined to reveal: 9
Case for Eli
Sal Paolontino, ESPN: “I will vote for Eli Manning first ballot. ... He was great when it counted the most. Manning has the top-flight passing numbers and the magnificent durability to cement his legacy of greatness. He has been a great ambassador for the game and team he represents. He is Hall of Famer.”
Scott Garceau, 105.7 The Fan in Baltimore: “His numbers (top eight all-time in yards and touchdowns), postseason success and so-over looked availability (210 consecutive starts). Sure, he’s thrown a lot of interceptions (241), but so have Brett Favre, Joe Namath and other Hall of Fame QBs. The last few years haven’t been pretty, but that’s why we wait five years before we vote. By then, it’ll be easier to see the totality of a Hall of Fame career versus a declining 38 year old."
Bob Glauber, Newsday: “His overall body of work is worthy of induction. (Fellow voter) Ron Borges likes to use the expression in our Hall of Fame meetings that it’s not just ability, but AVAIL-ability that is important in these discussions. Well, Manning has been available his entire career. The numbers are there. The championships are there. He should be in.”
Gary Myers, author: “I will vote for Eli Manning on the first ballot. He earned my vote nearly eight years ago with his second Super Bowl championship and second Super Bowl MVP. A Hall of Famer plays his best and is dominant in the biggest moments. Although Eli’s case would be strengthened had he won a playoff game in more than just the Super Bowl seasons, his two playoff runs of 4-0 with five NFC postseason victories on the road is enough to get my vote.”
Terez Paylor, Yahoo: “Two Super Bowl MVPs. Whether he finishes a few games over .500 or a few games under hardly matters to me at this point. He's 38 — by now his case is what it is.”
Anonymous voter 1: “I think a losing record as a starter would be a blemish on Eli’s candidacy, but the impact of two Super Bowl victories and the role he played in both would offset any negatives and enhance his chances to be elected.”
Anonymous voter 2: “I’m leaning toward yes at this point because of the two Super Bowl wins. Could you write the history of the NFL without Eli? I think so. But the two Super Bowl wins were impressive.”
Anonymous voter 3: “Eli is a Hall of Famer in my mind because of the two Super Bowl victories. A losing record wouldn’t change my mind on that.”
Anonymous voter 4: “Philip Rivers will get consideration for the Hall and Eli has achieved more. Eli should not be judged on the recent seasons but on his total career, highlighted by two Super Bowls in which he outperformed Tom Brady.”
Knocks on Eli
Jason Cole, FanSided: “Eli played a lot of his career as if he rolled out of bed on Saturday morning from the frat house after a serious mega-kegger the night before. He was obviously talented, had a lot of fun, and sometimes it was great and sometimes it wasn’t. And, in some ways, that was probably a good approach. ... I’m just not sure it’s Hall of Fame-worthy."
Ira Miller, The Sports Xchange: “He has the same passer rating as Joe Flacco, and they were contemporaries — and I don’t think a lot of people look at Flacco as a Hall of Famer, even given his one great postseason run."
Anonymous voter 5: “Eli made the plays to win the biggest games of his life. I saw a great quarterback in those moments. But those moments were too few and far between for a bust in Canton. Watching week-in and week-out, too often I did not see a Hall of Fame-worthy quarterback."
Anonymous voter 6: “His resume just isn’t good enough. Yeah, he’s a good quarterback and won two Super Bowls. But those Super Bowl teams won more because of defense than offense. To be essentially a .500 QB in this era where QBs have such an out-sized influence on games ... he’s just a good QB who was too inconsistent to be a Hall of Famer.”
Anonymous voter 7: “While he’s never led the league in yards passing, touchdowns or passer rating, he has led it in interceptions. Three times. But the clincher is that he’s never been an All-Pro. Not once. Which means he’s not been considered among the elite at his position, and that’s what the Hall of Fame is all about."
Anonymous voter 8: “In his last seven years, he has been one of the lowest-performing starters in the NFL, among quarterbacks who have played those seven seasons. That will count for something when the vote takes place a years from now.”
Anonymous voter 9: “I know opponents don’t live in fear of Eli Manning. I’ve watched Eli for 15 years and not once have I thought, ‘I’m watching a Hall of Famer who leads teams.’ But, if I had to bet, Eli is going to make it — not because of how he played but where he played. Everything that happens in New York is bigger.”
Importance of record
Kent Somers, Arizona Republic: “The two Super Bowls put him in rare company, but the overall win/loss record would be a factor for me and for many other voters, I suppose.”
Dave Birkett, Detroit Free Press: “I don't consider him the best quarterback playing at any time in his era, so he's not a slam dunk. But ultimately his postseason success might be too hard to ignore.”
Dan Fouts, CBS and Hall of Fame quarterback: “I try to stay away (from commenting) unless it’s obvious. I don’t think this is obvious. You get credit for the wins and you get blamed for the losses.”
Anonymous voter 10: “He has only four Pro Bowls. No All-Pro awards. No MVP awards. He won’t be all-decade. Will the two Super Bowl victories be enough? They weren’t for Jim Plunkett."
Anonymous voter 11: “He falls short of slam-dunk in my opinion, but he’s certainly in the ballpark for further thought and discussion being the quarterback who not only won two Super Bowls but took down the Patriots both times.”
Anonymous voter 12: “It’s not Eli’s fault that Jerry Reese wasn’t a good steward of free-agent money, or that someone gave him the regrettable Ben McAdoo, or that Dave Gettleman ran a double-reverse with Odell Beckham Jr., or that Ereck Flowers wasn’t very good at football. But if we balance those out, Eli is still stuck in a considerable amount of traffic, with better quarterbacks who have won (Roethlisberger), and a much better quarterback who hasn’t (Rivers)."
Anonymous voter 13: “What bothers me about Eli is what looks to be an all-or-nothing aspect to his career. Yes, two Super Bowls. He’s led the Giants to 4-0 postseason records in those two years, and they’re one-and-done in the other 4 years. Lasting impressions mean something, and going backward Eli is 5-11, 3-12, 11-5, 6-10, 6-10, 7-9.”
Anonymous voter 14: “Stack up all the QBs of his era. If a guy is seventh, eighth, ninth, is he a Hall of Famer?”
Anonymous voter 15: “I would not have any qualms about voting for a QB despite a below-.500 record — especially when he’s also been on a team with two SB wins — if the rest of his resume is worthy.”
Anonymous voter 16: "Great players may find themselves on otherwise horrible teams at particular times in their careers. That merely makes the statement he was unable to multiply himself into 21 other guys on offense and defense — and I wouldn’t ding him for that inability.”
Anonymous voter 17: “Perhaps the most overrated numbers in sports are won-loss records for quarterbacks (and pitchers). Just as winning a championship doesn’t guarantee a quarterback a spot in the Hall, not winning one shouldn’t preclude it from happening.”
Anonymous voter 18: “Eli has a pretty complicated and nuanced Hall of Fame case. A couple games north or south of .500 wouldn’t sway me.”
Anonymous voter 19: “There are some quarterbacks who make the guys around him better, and some who can win games all on their own. Is he one of those players? If you put another player in his place, would the record, stats and postseason be the same? There are a lot of things about a player who’s discussed by the selection committee that are revealed over time that can impact their candidacy. I think Eli is one of those.”
Now what?
Manning is facing a crossroads: He has expressed a desire to only play for the Giants but he has hinted at playing beyond 2019 — and will be a free agent after the season.
Something has to give. Would he be helping or hurting his case by starting again?
“If you put (his) record on one side of the scale and two-rings-and-beat-the-Patriots on the other, they balance out,” one voter said, "and then you judge him on his individual merits.”
Ryan Dunleavy may be reached at rdunleavy@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @rydunleavy. Find our Giants coverage on Facebook.
https://www.nj.com/giants/2019/09/is-giants-qb-eli-manning-a-hall-of-famer-or-is-his-record-too-poor-i-asked-39-actual-voters-and-results-will-surprise-you.html
2019-09-18 10:57:00Z
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